Monday, November 03, 2008

The Prediction

This is what I think the map will look like by this time tomorrow (click to see a larger image)

I do not see a landslide win of 390 electoral votes like Markos (and others are predicting). I think several factors will make this a little closer than most of the polls have shown heading to election day.

I see blue collar states like Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina going for McCain late. We'll see that the GOTV operation in those states for the Republicans was much stronger than anticipated and that in the end, many of the red state's undecided voters swung hard for McCain. Those states will be close, and may take a very long time to call, due to close votes and high turnout, but will narrowly end up in McCain's column.

Sadly, we will see columns written on Wednesday claiming the Bradley Effect isn't quite dead in America.

However, I see Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico needing to come through for Obama in order for him to prevail. Obama wins because of a superb ground game in these states. Latinos will be seen as one of the key reasons why Obama won the race. We will also see columns on Wednesday that will note this importance, and Latinos will be a much talked-about voter block in 2010 and 2012.

I do see Obama capturing 51.5% of the popular vote, but losing closely in many of the early swing states. Virginia and Pennsylvannia come through for him. New Hampshire is also suprisingly close but Obama wins it.

FINAL SCORE: Obama 291, McCain 247